“The automobile development restructuring and revitalization of planning” recommended in 2009 to China’s automobile goods produced and sales efforts more than 10 million, three-year midpoint expansion rate of 10 out of 100, it is needed to realise this objective is not not hard to realise in 2009 is 10% expansion , there still survive some variables. In 2008, the countrywide automobile goods produced and sales to 9,323,600, and…
by Zou himfr
“The automobile development restructuring and revitalization of planning” recommended in 2009 to China’s automobile goods produced and sales efforts more than 10 million, three-year midpoint expansion rate of 10 out of 100, it is needed to realise this objective is not not hard to realise in 2009 is 10% expansion , there still survive some variables. In 2008, the countrywide automobile goods produced and sales to 9,323,600, and 9,363,300, weighed against to the past, advancing goods produced and sales foundation, it is needed to realise 10% for three following years of high expansion, the contest is not small.
Growth curve is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations?
Ministry of knowledge development and issued written knowledge present that in March, the National Automobile goods produced 1,095,400, 35.59% expansion in flexible chain of bonds (in February than in March), an advance of 5.55%; sales 1,109,800, ring than the 34.10 out of 100 expansion, an advance of 5.01%.
Data in March to the automobile market a shot in the arm: first, sales of more than a quarter of the U.S. market, China has become the world’s biggest automobile buyer market; Second, a lone month to come back to one million steps; Third, an boost of the past six months the the largest point.
However, we should furthermore glimpse there are numerous problems: First, sales development exceeded 5% only, and not high; the second, “the world” is only provisional, full-year 2009 may be tough to surpass the United States; the third , since the second half of 2008, an boost of down too, the present development bend is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations? It is tough to state now; Fourth, fast development in March, the origin determinants of principle propelled, utilisation levy, buy levy slash, and the fuel levy restructure, a sequence of principles for example automobile rural areas performed a function in propping up the market; Fifth, dissimilarities in utilisation structure and conspicuously, in March sales of 772,400 traveller vehicles, up 10.26 per hundred, but sales of financial vehicles was 337,400 yuan, down 5.29%; the sixth, but the boost in automobile output and sales businesses half of the earnings are contradictory development, that there is still the topic of cost command, economic urgent position, the influence on the genuine finances is still deepening.
1-3 months in 2009, automobile output and sales 2,567,600 and 2,678,800, an boost of only 1.91% and 3.88%, decreased from the present inventory, and some forms traded out of the market position, 2009 years to accomplish the aim of 10% is expected to accomplish, but the force is not little and can only be warily optimistic.
In 2008, the national automobile production and sales dropped year-on-year increase of 16.87 and 15.21 percentage points, in which car sales dropped 20 and 16 percentage points decline in the magnitude of the year, and the first quarter of this year sales growth of only 1. 91% and 3.88%, therefore, whether the warmer automobile market is the key.
Small displacement and the role of motor vehicles can be driven to the countryside long?
As a effect of the use duty, pay for duty slice, tiny displacement motor vehicle sales getting higher, but in addition there are two problems: First, what displacement is the “small displacement”, the higher limit of the tiny number of emission? Second, tiny displacement vehicles (even the general fundamental thought of tiny displacement) of the virtual photograph is still sultry, the market share was not high.
“The automobile development restructuring and revitalization of planning” gives that from 2009 January 20 to December 31, and under 1.6 liters of displacement by 5% of commuter vehicle pay for duty levied; At the matching time, the next three years, ” displacement of 1.5 liters of the following commuter market share atop 40%, of which a tiny displacement under 1.0 liters motor vehicle market share atop 15% “; motor vehicle for the surrounding territories is the displacement of 1.3 liters for the following cars.
So, what is “small displacement” national car is not clearly defined, the industry did not conclusive, 1.6 liters, 1.5 liters, 1.3 liters or 1.0 liters? Policy of ambiguity at a loss for some enterprises, investment in R & D indecisive.
One is 1.0 liters and below is the real model of small displacement cars, if so, this part of the market share models in fact very small, not very hot but also the future of preferential policies to further can not only cover this part of model.
The first quarter, SAIC-GM-Wuling sales 246,293, up 34.5 per hundred, this development was mostly due to the high utilisation levy, and vehicle buy levy decrease principle support to country localities, and SAIC-GM-Wuling is founded on micro-off founded business, is a vehicle to the rural areas the most direct beneficiaries of the principle, thus, SAIC-GM-Wuling, high-growth does not signify that a little displacement of the “golden period” on the up.
1-3 months, sales of vehicles out the peak 10 emblems are: F3, Excelle, Yuet move, Jetta, QQ, Santana, Elantra, Xiali, Accord, Corolla, which can be glimpsed, 1.3 or the following couple of forms actually.
At present, the auto guideline support to countryside environs are chiefly wares and micro-light commuter motor vehicles out; China’s auto market is the “golden output” is still 1.6 to 2.4 liters; by the fundamental thought of the consequence of use, 1.3 liters emissions and trade the following motor vehicle types have yet to be upgraded; the consequence of the charge itself is still bigger than the consequence of oil prices. The long time span, small-displacement motor vehicle to the surrounding territories and the hauling effect of these two environs may not have looked frontwards to less than ideal.
The difficulty is that the present boost mostly by little displacement with the vehicle propelled to the rural areas, and this is where the worry.
Decline in trade overseas yield descent
In 2008, the nationwide automobile trade items 684,900, accounting for the household automobile output 7.36 per hundred, an boost of 67.7 percentage points decline; the first quarter of 2009, nationwide automobile trade items 61,000 yuan, down 62.06 %.
This means that trade items development in down turn in 2008, founded on the year 2009, trade items are expected to fall the more serious.
On the one hand, China’s auto trade overseas chiefly condensed concurrently in the “Asia” territory, the location stayed at than the migraine itself, narrower; On the other hand, in actual by the exchange rate is subject to the consequence of fiscal critical purpose, the worldwide motor vehicle market shrinking speedily, trade overseas descent exacerbated by the prevailing heading down movement continues.
In supplement, whereas China’s auto goods bargain, but the value of word-of-mouth and emblem likeness still desires to be advanced, and this is a long-term can be effective. To addition up, the position was very grave automobile exports.
According to China’s Automobile Association statistics, this year, 1-2 months, large-scale automobile enterprises the main business income of 320.413 billion yuan, up 9.42 percent decline, the profit amounted to 9.879 billion yuan, up 50 percent decline.
2008, 19 key enterprises in the automobile industry (group) on the overall decline in profits, while the faster decline in 2009. Decline in profits for many reasons: On the one hand, 2008 is mainly due to rising costs, continued to decline in 2009 that cost control in enterprises is still a large problem; On the other hand, demonstrate the effects of market further intensified, companies may not want to price the market constant pressure to lower prices, but look at the long-term trend will continue; the most fundamental reason is the limited size of enterprise, productivity is not high, lean production is not achieved and the level of precision management is not high.
Policy to support the face needs to be expanded
2009, a positive factor for China’s auto market more than the negative factors, the overall terms of the bright spot in the world will continue to be, but is currently facing great challenges, whether the next three years, “Paul 10″ the need for policy support was further expanded.
2009, production efficiency and management of even the highest levels of Toyota’s profit is expected to have substantially lower, we can see how severe the situation, domestic enterprises are facing “the growth of trouble” and the dual pressures of external challenges.
Policy support is not protectionism, the state procurement is not inclined to own brand label is “the pay for of in the household yield in a” replica.
First, the vehicle should be farther amplified to country localities, concern could be granted a farther 50 million to support the utilisation of little displacement vehicles, despite of their own emblems and junction project emblems, so as to bypass conflicts.
Second, the acquisition of levy could be farther decreased underneath 1.3 liters and the vehicle could be advised tax-free; from 1.3 to 1.8 liters could be advised to 3%; from 1.8 to 2.4 liters could be advised down to 5 %. Will be less levy income, but the automotive buyer and other consumer-driven, conspicuously to encourage the function of household demand.
Third, the abolition of travel tax to clean up a further charge of secondary roads to prevent disguised charges.
Fourth, the street to retrieve the lend primary and interest of borrowings after the homeland, to halt the charges.
Fifth, to speed up the domestic market into line with international oil prices, and to change the current domestic oil price rise in international oil prices rose rapidly, the domestic oil prices in international oil prices gradually dropped down the status quo of the blame.
Sixth, to farther intensify in the new power, new technologies in support of efforts to boost the autonomy of the personal vehicle R & D support.
Seventh, automobile exports increased support, the appropriate vehicle to raise the export tax rebate rate, the establishment of a special incentive fund to enhance export services platform.
Eighth, the norms and the endorsement of drive vehicle fiscal development, and advantageous relaxation rate motor vehicle advances and down compensation, at the matching time the stringent organisation of private loan records.
IX, regulate second-hand car market, to support new-generation car consumption, buy used cars to expand the policy to support the new surface can be extended to 20 million cars in the area, but not limited to redemption of light goods, such as micro-off.
